Monday, December 11, 2017

Early Odds and Probabilities

WC 2018 Odds and Probabilities
WC 2018 Odds and Probabilities
The 2018 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018 when the final will take place in Moscow at the Luzhniki Stadium. The draw for the World Cup took place on 1 December, and now the best football bookmakers have already set their early odds for tournament favorites, group winners and top goalscorer. In this post we will give you some basic WC 2018 info and take a look at the given early odds and implied probabilities

So, let start with the World Cup 2018 top favorites; Germany, Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina. Bookmakers have set defending champions Germany as top favorite for World Cup winner and estimate they have around 18% chance to win it again. Brazil with 17% is favorite nr.2, France with 15% is third, followed by Spain (12%) and Argentina (10%). 

Now, let's take a look at all the groups and which two teams according to bookmakers have the most chance to advance to the round of 16. 

The group A consists of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Uruguay. Uruguay with 45% and Russia with 36% are set as favorites to advance. According to the FIFA rankings, this is the weakest group. 

The group B consists of Portugal, Spain, Morocco, and Iran. Spain with 60% and Portugal with 33% are set as favorites to advance. 

The group C consists of France, Australia, Peru, and Denmark. France with 75% and Denmark with 12% are set as favorites to advance. 

The group D consists of Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, and Nigeria. Argentina with 60% and Croatia with 25% are set as favorites to advance. 

The group E consists of Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, and Serbia. Brazil with 75% and Switzerland with 12% are set as favorites to advance. According to the FIFA rankings, this is the strongest group. 

The group F consists of Germany, Mexico, Sweden, and South Korea. Germany with 68% and Mexico with 12% are set as favorites to advance. 

The group G consists of Belgium, Panama, Tunisia, and England. Belgium with 52% and England with 40% are set as favorites to advance. 

The group H consists of Poland, Senegal, Colombia, and Japan. Colombia with 40% and Poland with 35% are set as favorites to advance. 

As for top goalscorer, Messi (9%), Neymar (8%) and Ronaldo (8%) are clearly favorites, but it would be a mistake to underestimate players like Timo Werner (6%), Alvaro Morata (5%) or Robert Lewandowski (3%). 

Implied probability number is taken from the average odds given by the bookmakers in time of writing and rounded to simplify.

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